The outbreak of conflict with Iran at the end of February 2026 has brought geopolitics back to the forefront of concerns, particularly those of the markets. Against a turbulent backdrop, this conflict has reignited volatility in the financial markets. In addition to Iran's targeting of several OPEC+ countries, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the focus of attention.

How the markets are reacting

Since military operations began on 28 February 2026, the major stock markets have experienced turbulent days. In Europe, the CAC 40 has seen several sessions of decline, while Asian markets have also corrected. In the United States, volatility has been very pronounced, with the Dow Jones losing nearly 800 points in a single session. This market reaction reflects a classic phenomenon in times of geopolitical tension. Faced with uncertainty, investors reduce their exposure to risky assets and favour assets considered more defensive.

Oil at the heart of trading

One of the main drivers of volatility remains energy price movements. As the Middle East is a strategic region for global oil and gas supplies, any disruption in this area can have an immediate impact on the markets. Since the start of the conflict, the price of a barrel of oil has risen, exceeding £90 at the end of the week. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global trade, particularly oil, passes, are a major concern. This week's rise in energy prices could lead to inflation and possibly delay central bank rate cuts.

Which stocks to watch?

In this context, gold, which is considered a safe haven in times of crisis, has changed little this week after a turbulent start to the year. At the same time, certain sectors are benefiting from the situation. Companies in the energy and defence sectors have performed well, with investors anticipating increased military spending and demand for energy resources. Conversely, sectors heavily dependent on transport or fuel, such as airlines, have been particularly hard hit. Despite these tensions, financial markets remain relatively resilient for the time being. Investors seem to believe, at this stage, that a limited conflict scenario remains possible and that the global economy could absorb this shock.

In this context of geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, it is essential to avoid overreacting. Anticipation and diversification remain key for investors. Finankap's wealth management advisers are here to help you analyse these developments and adapt your investment strategy in order to secure your assets while identifying opportunities. Contact us!

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