The election in the United States, combined with political tensions in Europe and France, illustrates an uncertain environment, where each event can have a significant impact on the financial markets. Against this backdrop, the Finankap Group team analyses the situation and shares its strategy!

The re-election of Donald Trump has rekindled the debate on economic protectionism and trade tensions and their geopolitical impact. During his first term in office, measures such as massive tax cuts and the introduction of customs barriers had contrasting effects on the global economy. Stock markets grew strongly, buoyed by a policy that favoured American companies to the detriment of other geographical areas. Today, the US President's economic choices could rekindle heightened volatility on the markets, particularly through his protectionist strategy, which could have an impact on the Fed's monetary policy.

There are also major uncertainties in Europe. With the European Central Bank (ECB) committed to a restrictive monetary policy, and social tensions linked to the rising cost of living, the challenges are mounting. While Germany, one of the economic engines of the eurozone, is facing economic stagnation, sovereign debt and budget deficits are worrying the markets.

In France, where the Prime Minister has just been removed from office by a vote of no-confidence, the situation is raising many questions. As the President of the Republic has ruled out any resignation, he is likely to appoint a new Prime Minister, whose room for manoeuvre will also be limited by the fragmentation of the Assembly. Indeed, it seems utopian to hope for the approval of a 2025 budget. As a result, the most likely course of action seems to be that of a special bill that would allow the 2024 budget to be renewed, with certain amendments. However, there are two caveats: the government must table the bill before 19 December 2024, and as this is an unprecedented situation, the possible content of the amendments remains unclear.

On the tax side, indexation to inflation of the progressive tax scale for 2024 income could be envisaged. The scale would then be revalued by 2%, which would have a positive impact on taxpayers.

Our strategy: diversification, opportunity and flexibility

Against this backdrop, we adopt a cautious, balanced approach, combining international geographical and sector diversification, selection of resilient or disruptive sectors and management flexibility, maintaining sufficient liquidity to react quickly and seize market opportunities.

Global economic and political uncertainty demands informed and appropriate choices. At Finankap Group, we keep a close eye on developments to guide our clients with confidence and offer investment solutions tailored to this unprecedented context. In a rapidly changing world, our priority is to safeguard your interests while identifying tomorrow's opportunities.

Finankap Group, always at your side to bring your dreams to life.